The Best Time to Buy Bitcoin Was When It Was $10. The Second-Best Time Is Before It Hits $1 Million

Bitcoin’s rise from a fringe innovation to a globally recognized financial asset is one of the most remarkable stories in modern economic history. For those who were skeptical or unaware in its early years, the regret is almost universal: “I should have bought Bitcoin when it was $10.”

At that time, Bitcoin was a curiosity — an open-source project with no central backing, little liquidity, and few use cases outside of tech circles. Fast forward to today, and it has transformed into a trillion-dollar asset class, traded on institutional platforms, owned by public companies, and held in retirement accounts around the world.

Currently priced at around $100,000, Bitcoin may appear to some investors as overvalued or beyond reach. However, for those who believe in its long-term trajectory — potentially reaching $1 million per coin — this current moment may still represent a rare opportunity. In fact, it may be the second-best time to buy Bitcoin.

Understanding Asymmetric Opportunity

At a $100,000 price, a move to $1,000,000 would represent a 10x return. That level of asymmetric upside is increasingly rare in traditional asset classes. In investment terms, it’s a classic example of risking a limited amount to gain a significantly larger reward.

To illustrate:

• A $1,000 investment today becomes $10,000 if Bitcoin hits $1 million.

• A $10,000 position would grow to $100,000 under the same scenario.

Such potential returns are why even small allocations to Bitcoin can meaningfully impact long-term portfolio performance — particularly when sized appropriately based on risk tolerance.

Why $1 Million Bitcoin Is Not Far-Fetched

Skepticism around Bitcoin’s valuation is common, but many of the early criticisms have fallen away as adoption has grown.

Today, Bitcoin benefits from:

• Institutional recognition, with firms such as BlackRock and Fidelity launching Bitcoin ETFs;

  
  

• Public company participation, such as MicroStrategy converting billions of corporate treasury into Bitcoin;

  
  

• Sovereign interest, including El Salvador’s legal tender experiment and growing signals from other nations;

  
  

• Monetary policy concerns, as investors look for alternatives to fiat currencies experiencing long-term debasement.

In addition, Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins — with over 90% already mined — creates a built-in scarcity that contrasts sharply with the expansionary nature of traditional currencies. If Bitcoin captures even a portion of global gold, bond, or real estate market value, a $1 million valuation becomes not only plausible, but perhaps conservative.

The Timing Dilemma

One of the biggest obstacles to investing in Bitcoin is psychological. Investors often look backward and feel paralyzed by missed opportunity — “It was so much cheaper before.” But investment success depends on forward-looking analysis, not retrospective regret.

Historically, Bitcoin has always appeared “expensive” relative to its past. At $1,000 in 2013, at $10,000 in 2017, and again at $60,000 in 2021, skeptics called it a bubble each time. Yet, over long time horizons, those who held have consistently outperformed.

The paradox is clear: people tend to buy assets after they’ve already risen dramatically — not before. This is why investing requires both conviction and discipline.

Building a Thoughtful Allocation

Bitcoin is still a volatile and evolving asset. It is not without risk. But thoughtful investors can manage that risk by using a small, diversified allocation within a broader portfolio.

Many adopt a “barbell” approach — keeping the majority of assets in traditional, stable investments, while placing 1–5% in high-upside alternatives like Bitcoin. The key is not to overextend, but also not to ignore.

Conclusion

The financial world is undergoing transformation, and Bitcoin may play a pivotal role in that transition. While the opportunity to buy it at $10 is gone forever, the opportunity to buy it before a potential move to $1 million still exists — though likely not for long.

As with any investment, the decision should be based on research, risk tolerance, and long-term goals. But for those who believe in the structural case for Bitcoin, history may look back on this era as a time of extraordinary potential.

The best time to buy Bitcoin was when it was $10.The second-best time is before it hits $1 million.